Pilot B · single HVAC contractor · 90 days
Quotelapse · composite pilot
$650K recoveredon a single HVAC contractor.
A composite, anonymized 90-day pilot scenario — Pilot B to the canonical scenario at /case-study/hvac-revenue-recovery. Two regional HVAC shapes: Mid-Atlantic two-truck shop, ~90 days, one full reactivation cycle. Numbers are representative, not from a single client. The shape is real.
pilot · at a glance
Composite · 90 daysDormant leads touched
6,500 homeowners · CRM-resident
6,500
Appointments booked
78% reached · 21% responded
312
Revenue recovered
64% show-rate · $3,250 avg ticket
$650K
Pilot B · single HVAC contractor · 90 days · not a real-claim
00 · The pilot
A composite drawn from Mid-Atlantic two-truck shop over roughly 90 days — assembled as a representative pilot scenario, anonymized, and shaped like the average pre-onboarding book we see in our discovery calls. Not a single client. Not a real-claim. Read it as the shape of the opportunity.
01 · The funnel
6,500 dormant leads, walked through five gates.
Each downstream number inherits FROM the previous step. Re-segment and suppression gate first; reach, response, and booking at the cadence the homeowner's dormancy shape asks for; dispatcher-ready, then revenue.
BEFORE
Day 0
CRM-resident leads
6,500 dormant leads sit idle — service-call callbacks never returned, system-replacement quotes with no follow-up, off-season tune-up requests long expired.
BEFORE
Day 1–14
Re-segment + DNC suppression
Bucket the dormancy graph into four service shapes (diagnostic, system replacement, repair, off-season reactivation). Suppress against DNC, prior opt-outs, and tonal fatigue.
AFTER
Day 15–30
6,500 → 5,070 reached
Email + SMS threads reference the actual job ticket, the actual homeowner, the actual service shape. TCPA-tight cadence. 78% deliver through to a real human.
AFTER
Day 31–60
5,070 → 1,065 responded
21% of reached contacts opt back in (text reply, callback confirm, or click-through). Replies are answered by a real human within one business day.
AFTER
Day 61–90
1,065 → 312 booked → 200 showed
Qualified appointments handed to dispatch · 64% show-rate · $650K recovered.
02 · Three pain buckets
Where the $650K came from.
Three shapes of dormant opportunity that show up in nearly every HVAC book we walk. The before-count is the status quo; the after-count is what compliant, persistent re-engagement produces.
Pain · A1
Diagnostic no-shows
Before
214 no-charge diagnostic no-shows · 12+ months stale
After
167 re-engaged · 81 booked
Free diagnostic appointments set months ago that never got a rebook nudge — and the homeowner still wanted the work scoped.
Pain · A2
Whole-system quotes never closed
Before
186 five-figure system estimates · never confirmed
After
142 re-engaged · 113 booked
Highest-ticket line items in the book: full furnace + AC replacement, add-on zoning, IAQ upgrades. The original spec still tracked — nobody re-confirmed scope, financing window, or seasonal timing.
Pain · A3
Off-season service plans that died
Before
1,040 maintenance-plan inquiries · pre-2025
After
598 re-engaged · 118 booked
Tune-up and maintenance agreement inquiries that fell out of seasonal relevance. The homeowner asked once for a quote — the system asks them again two quarters later, but the price and the cadence no longer fit.
03 · From the field
One line from a mid-Atlantic HVAC owner-operator on what changed when the dormant pipeline stopped leaking.
“We'd written those leads off as lost years ago. Watching the reactivation threads come back in — referenced to the actual ticket, the actual homeowner — was the first time the dormant pipeline looked like inventory instead of a graveyard.”
Owner-operator, mid-Atlantic HVAC pilot · anonymized
Composite attribution · Pilot B · single HVAC contractor · 90 days · not a real claim.
04 · The math
6,500 × 78% × 21% × 29% × 64% × $3,250.
Five quiet funnel rates multiply into a loud outcome. Each ratio is reviewable against the source CRM — the pilot runs against your real book, not a benchmark.
Funnel gate
Value
How it shows up
Dormant leads touched
Composite · representative pilot
6,500
CRM-resident · composite for a two-truck regional HVAC book
Reached
Composite · representative pilot
5,070 · 78%
Deliverable + open + retained to a real human
Responded
Composite · representative pilot
1,065 · 21%
Text reply, voicemail callback, or click-through
Booked · 29%
Composite · representative pilot
312
Qualified · scope confirmed · dispatcher-ready
Showed · 64%
Composite · representative pilot
200
Comparison to industry baseline 38–44% for cold outbound
Recovered revenue
Lead count × funnel rates × avg ticket
$650K
Across 90 days · Mid-Atlantic two-truck shop · anonymized composite
05 · Start
15 minutes. Five quick questions.
We listen, take five notes, and follow up within one business day with an opportunity estimate and a pilot recommendation. No deck, no demo, no live CRM connect.
This pilot ran against 6,500 dormant leads. Yours will run against your real book — the dormant count, the show-rate, and the ticket mix all inherit from your CRM, not a benchmark.